KATHMANDU , As the deadline for the Phagun 21 (March 4) general election approaches, a deep divide has emerged between the government’s technical preparations and the political maneuvering of major parties. While the state machinery insists the polls are on track, a wave of skepticism driven by the top leadership of the major parties and factions of the youth movement threatens to stall the electoral process.
The Institutional Stand: “No Room for Delay”
On Monday, Prime Minister Sushila Karki held a high-level briefing at Singha Durbar with the Election Commission (EC) and major political parties. The EC confirmed that technical preparations are in their final stages:
Party registrations are complete.
The proportional representation candidate list is due next week.
Ballot paper printing is ready to commence at the Janak Shiksha Samagri Kendra.
Addressing the nation, PM Karki was adamant: “Do not be under any illusion that the election will be postponed. This is a moment of celebration and the only path to transition out of the current crisis.”
The “Double Strategy” of Major Parties
Despite official participation in the EC process, the two largest parties the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML appear to be looking for an alternative exit. While their representatives were at Singha Durbar, NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba and UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli met privately in Maharajgunj.
Their primary focus remains the restoration of the dissolved House of Representatives. Reports suggest they are preparing a supplementary petition to the Supreme Court with signatures from over 150 MPs. This “dual strategy” registering for the election while legally fighting to bring back the old parliament has created a massive trust deficit in the Phagun 21 deadline.
Conflicting Voices: “Conspiracy” and “Postponement”
The political waters have been further muddied by high-ranking leaders:
The “Conspiracy” Theory: CPN (Maoist) Coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ recently warned of a “conspiracy” to delay the polls. His statement has led analysts to believe that behind-the-scenes negotiations to derail the election are already in motion.
The “Baisakh” Alternative: NC General Secretary Vishwa Prakash Sharma floated the idea that pushing the election to April (Baisakh) wouldn’t be harmful if it ensures a “credible environment,” directly contradicting the government’s firm Phagun 21 stance.
UML’s Roadmap: KP Sharma Oli continues to argue that the current security situation specifically the alleged low morale of security forces post-Gen-Z movement makes elections unfeasible right now.
The Gen-Z Schism
The youth movement that catalyzed the recent political shift is now internally fractured.
The Pro-Election Faction: Groups like the Gen-Z Front, led by Rakshya Bam, support the government and see the election as the only way to validate their movement’s success.
The Dissidents: Other influential youth leaders, including Sudan Gurung and Miraj Dhungana, have turned against the administration. They are demanding a “power restructuring” and an all-party government first, arguing that a rush to the polls under the “status quo” is unacceptable.
The “Bangladesh Model” Warning
The growing uncertainty has sparked fears that Nepal might mirror the “Bangladesh Model.” Following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s interim government has struggled to hold elections, leading to prolonged instability and fresh violence.
Observers warn that if Nepal misses the Phagun 21 window, the country risks entering a “vicious cycle” of constitutional vacuum and unending transition.
Final Outlook
As of today, the Election Commission and the Prime Minister’s Office are moving at full speed. However, the political “ground reality” is being shaped by leaders who seem more interested in the restoration of the old power structure than the creation of a new one.
Whether Nepal votes on Phagun 21 or slips into a prolonged political deadlock now rests on two factors: the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the House restoration and whether the NC-UML alliance decides that an election is in their best interest.